It May Depend on Who Goes to Vote: Gallup Says McCain Pulls Within 2%

The Gallup daily poll might indeed be instructive on who will win the election.

Amongst REGISTERED VOTERS Obama leads McCain 50% - 43% - a whopping 7% lead.

And amongst LIKELY VOTERS EXPANDED (meaning voters who say they will probably vote), Obama's lead is still 7% at 51% - 44%.

But amongst TRADITIONAL LIKELY VOTERS (meaning those that have voted in the past) Obama's lead shrinks to 2%, 49% - 47%.

In North Carolina, WRAL-TV reported that voters were split evenly 47% - 47%. Some said that showed that McCain was really bad off since the state has voted for the Republican candidate over the last several elections, but at the same time, NC has had a Democratic governor for at least 16 years as well as a Democratic legislature and council of state despite several prominent Democratic politicians now serving time in jail for bribery, etc.

So who will show up to vote. There certainly are plenty of people who were signed up at the mall or on park benches, but will they vote. Will there be vans to pick them up and take them to the polls in return for a smoke, drink, or some other coupon?

In short, you're vote may be very important.