Is North Korea's Kim Jong-il Dead - or Dying?

News reports are saying that North Korea's crazy dictator may be ill or dying because he was not present at the 60 Anniversary celebration of the Communist takeover of North Korea. Story here.


But after this made the headlines along with speculation as to who would take over since Kim has not made his successor apparent, which of course raises the spectre of military turmoil in North Korea, Kim suddenly shows up again. Well, not in person, but by way of sending a telegram to Syria leader Assad. Story here.

But hold the show. A long time Japanese expert on Kim Jong II released a book this summer saying that Kim Jong-il has probably been dead since 2003 - with acting doubles making his few limited appearances. Story here.

At first, I thought the story was wacky, but given that dictators often have doubles (The New York Times and others have reported that Saddam Hussein had at least 3 doubles), and Professor Toshimitsu Shigemura's expertise in Kim Jong-il and his argument that there was a different change in Kim's outreach efforts in 2003 (along with the move of Kim's favorite sister to Paris after her husband got booted out of the ruling party) leads me to believe that perhaps Kim is dead. The best report of Shigemura's finding is here.

If he is dead, the facade could be a way for a small circle of power brokers to keep power. In most 3rd world countries, that doesn't affect us, but with this nuclear, missile selling country of mystery, it could very serious consequences.